Toronto could get its first snowfall this Saturday, up to 15 cm for some parts of the GTA
After some unseasonably warm fall weather in southern Ontario in recent days, temperatures are forecast to fall in the days ahead and will likely result in an approaching weather system bringing the first significant snow to the region, including the GTA.
“It’s been actually a very quiet season so far for the greater Golden Horseshoe, but that’s about to change,” Environment Canada warning preparedness meteorologist Gerald Cheng told National Post in an interview.
Areas north of the city, Ottawa and parts of Quebec, meanwhile, are expected to get even more.
While the forecast models are constantly evolving, it’s looking increasingly like the GTA will see the first snowflakes falling at some point on Saturday night and continuing overnight with residents waking to a blanket of snow Sunday morning.
“We are talking about at least five (centimetres) for some areas, and that includes the city of Toronto,” Cheng said, noting the system was still more than 48 hours out.
“So we’re still looking at the amounts and how the forecast will pan out.”
Up to 15 centimetres for areas north and east of the city are not out of the question, he said, advising residents to keep abreast of the forecast because it will change before the system arrives.
Because the ground temperature is still relatively warm, Cheng said whatever snow does fall likely won’t stick around for long in Toronto, but could linger longer elsewhere.
Regardless of how long it stays and even though the snow is coming on a day when there’s far less traffic on the roads, Cheng said drivers comfortable with fairer conditions should brace for the change and adjust their driving habits accordingly.
“And that includes the 400 series highways, along the 401, which is one of the busiest in the country,” he said, urging people who haven’t already to get their winter tires changed.
Cheng said while significant snow in November is often more common in areas adjacent to Georgian Bay on the east side of Lake Huron, it can happen in the big city, too.
“Last November, we didn’t get much and the November before that in 2023, we didn’t get much, but we’ve had snow in November and accumulating snow as well,” he said.
Toronto got its first snowfall of 2024 on Nov. 28, according to the Weather Network , with the first significant snowfall coming about a week later on Dec. 4 when roughly five centimetres briefly blanketed the city.
This winter forecast for the Toronto region in this year’s Canadian edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts below normal snowfall with the “snowiest periods in late November, early and mid-February.”
In its winter prognostication, the separate Farmer’s Almanac counted southern and eastern Ontario among the snowiest regions with “frequent snowstorms, lake-effect snow, and icy conditions.”
After it has dumped on the GTA overnight Saturday, Cheng said the system will move northeast towards Ottawa and surrounding areas in Quebec, where it will drop an estimated 15 centimetres throughout Sunday.
“So if you are heading to Montreal as well, that would be a problem as well,” he said.
At present, Environment Canada ’s long-range forecast for the nation’s capital calls for snow and a daytime high of two degrees.
From there, Cheng said the system will move east towards the Maritimes, where it isn’t expected to result in significant snowfall at this time.
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