Everything you need to know about the 'downward social mobility' report Poilievre quoted

During a Tuesday press conference to unveil the Conservative election platform, Pierre Poilievre took a departure from the topic du jour, analyzing a report from an obscure government department that warned of the potential that many Canadians may “face the very real possibility of downward social mobility” by 2040. “The report paints a terrifying picture of a spiral of economic depression and cost inflation,” Poilievre said. Written by Policy Horizons, the report suggests various hypothetical situations Canada could face in 2040, including a world where young Canadians are moving abroad, and some may even turn to foraging and hunting to meet basic food needs. “Thinking about future scenarios helps decision-makers understand some of the forces already influencing their policy environment,” the report says. “It can also help them test the future readiness of assumptions built into today’s policies and programs. Finally, it helps identify opportunities to take decisions today that may benefit Canada in the future.” Here’s what you need to know about the government department and its report. What is Policy Horizons? It is a government office that was founded in 1996 that does strategic foresight .  In a statement, Maja Stefanovska, a spokesperson with Employment and Social Development Canada, said that Policy Horizons analyzes the “emerging policy landscape, the challenges that lie ahead, the opportunities opening up,” in addition to “building foresight literacy and capacity in the public service,” These sort of society-oriented wargames explore the ways the future could unfold, no matter how outlandish, so as to inform current government priorities. Strategic foresight is a common practice in the business world, and Policy Horizons says it follows the methodologies of other national governments and the private sector. Are these predictions? Not really. The report makes several suggestions about what the future could hold. In the past, Policy Horizons has gamed out the potential for various scenarios , including the outbreak of world war, an information realm dominated by misinformation and antibiotic resistance. Stefanovska said the report is “not a forecast nor a commentary on current or future policies.” Rather, it concocts hypothetical futures as an exercise to help government prepare for all possible futures. What does it say about work in the hypothetical future? In that world, post-secondary education is no longer a path towards social mobility; rather, it is too expensive for anyone but the rich and programs on offer are too inflexible to prepare students for the demands of work. Instead of being a path to a better job, post-secondary education has become a social marker than one has joined the “elite.” The advances of artificial intelligence also limit the labour market, especially in creative fields, meaning people need to rely on gig work to pay the bills. What does it say about housing? If this scenario comes to pass, Canadians are unable to afford housing. Rather, intergenerational mortgages have become the norm and several generations of family live together under one roof, or people get mortgages with friends, while landlords who oppose rent freezes or increased housing supply scoop up large portions of the housing market. “Inequality between those who rent and those who own has become a key driver of social, economic, and political conflict,” the report says. Compared to some of the situation analysis Policy Horizons has done in the past — such as considering a future in which the United States is embroiled in a civil war — this one seems altogether too likely. Housing costs are one of the defining issues of the 2025 election. Ipsos polling from April 2024 found that 80 per cent of Canadians already believe that owning a home is only for the wealthy and 72 per cent say they have given up on ever owning a home. Despite this, though, home ownership has been reasonably stable in Canada: in 2021, 66.5 per cent of Canadians owned their home; in 2011, 69 per cent did — but that was a record high, according to Statistics Canada. What about wealth? The hypothetical Canada of 2040 is a society that “increasingly resembles an aristocracy,” and one of the only ways to get ahead will be through inheritance. Interestingly, Canada is expected to see $1 trillion in intergenerational wealth passed along over the next few years, in the largest wealth transfer in history, as Baby Boomers and the silent generation pass their wealth on to millennials and Gen X. This society also sees less interaction between socio-economic classes; it predicts dating apps that select via income, for example. This has already happened, to some extent, with exclusive dating apps such as Raya and the League, compared to more egalitarian apps such as Tinder or Hinge (although on Hinge, a person can select on the basis of education and political views.) “Social relations no longer offer pathways to connections or opportunities that enable upward mobility,” the report says. What does it say about the economy? In short, it suggests that a hypothetical Canada in 2040 could have a less predictable economy, with wealth highly concentrated, an upwards spiral of housing costs and a depressed consumer economy, as people spend less money. It also suggests that migrants may choose countries other than Canada and that younger Canadians may move abroad. This could imperil social services that older Canadians rely upon. Does it have any positives? That depends on your definition of positives. It predicts the growth of trade unions as a way to resist the impoverishment of Canadian workers. Union membership has already dropped in Canada , from a high of 37.6 per cent in 1981 to a low of 30.4 per cent in 2023. However, while some may see increased union membership as a good thing, the report warns, “Job actions and strikes may disrupt economic development.” With costs rising and incomes decreasing, Canadians may also turn to alternative structures to get the support they need. For example, they may turn to co-operatives for housing, food, childcare, and health care. While this may meet basic needs and decrease the demands on public services, it could also pose challenges for “market-based businesses.” “People could rethink what ‘prosperity’ means, or ‘fulfilment.’ They may reject conspicuous consumption. They may focus on policies that promote human flourishing. This could include health care, housing, the environment, and education for its own sake,” the report says. What else? The report suggests various alternative methods of exchanging goods and services and acquiring goods. It suggests that trading goods and services could reduce tax revenues or impair consumer safety. It also says foraging and hunting and small-scale agriculture could become more common. As it stands, about three per cent of Canadian households hunt , nine per cent have gone fishing and, while the report does not specify what it means by small-scale agriculture, 61 per cent of Canadian households already grow fruit , vegetables, herbs or flowers for themselves. All of this could mean that Canadians blame others, or various systems, for their problems. The report warns that Canadians could blame immigrants or the rich or demand tighter regulations from government. “They may attack policies believed to favour older cohorts, who benefited from the era of social mobility,” the report says. “In extreme cases, people could reject the state’s legitimacy, leading to higher rates of tax evasion or other forms of civil disobedience.” Does the report say this is good? Is this also the view of the government? No to both. The authors write that the described scenario of stunted social mobility is “neither desired nor preferred,” but that it is plausible. A disclaimer on the report says: “The content of this document does not necessarily represent the views of the Government of Canada, or participating departments and agencies.”

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