Majority of Ontarians say their province is heading in the wrong direction: poll
Just one-third of Ontarians say their province is heading in the right direction, according to a new Leger poll.
The polling finds that, despite Premier Doug Ford having an approval rating of 45 per cent, a majority — 55 per cent — of Ontarians believe the province is on the wrong track. Only 33 per cent say the province is on the right track.
“There’s been a shift in moods in Ontario. Ontarians are growing more pessimistic,” said Jennifer McLeod Macey, Leger’s senior vice-president of public affairs.
Those in eastern Ontario are most likely, at 44 per cent, to say the province is headed in the right direction, while 29 per cent of those in southern Ontario, 32 per cent of those in the Greater Toronto Area and 30 per cent of those in the Hamilton/Niagara regions and northern Ontario say that the province is on the right track.
There’s also a gender divide: men (36 per cent) are more likely than women (29 per cent) to say the province is headed in the right direction. When it comes to the age breakdown, those in the 35 to 54 age bracket, at just 22 per cent, are the least likely to say the province is doing things right.
Only 42 per cent of Progressive Conservative voters say their province is headed in the right direction — the same percentage as those who support the Ontario Liberals. In comparison, 70 per cent of NDP supporters say the province is headed in the wrong direction.
When it comes to the issues that Ontarians see facing their province, 17 per cent identify housing prices and affordability as the most important. Those in their home-buying years are most likely to see housing and affordability as the most important issue. Twenty per cent of those between the ages of 18 and 34 identify it as the most important issue, as do 19 per cent of those between the ages of 35 and 54. After that, concern drops off sharply: just 12 per cent of Ontarians in the 55 or older age range see housing prices as a major issue.
“Housing affordability continues to dominate as Ontarians’ top concern. This is especially true of younger and middle aged adults,” said McLeod Macey.
Older Ontarians, however, are most likely, at 21 per cent, to view the state of the health-care system as the biggest issue. Overall in Ontario, 14 per cent identify health care as the biggest trouble plaguing the province. (Sixty-one per cent of Ontarians say the Ford government has not been doing well on health-care policy.)
“If performance for Ford is not great in that space, it kind of explains why the overall mood is more pessimistic,” said McLeod Macey.
As for other concerns, hot-topic issues such as the opioid crisis barely register: Just two per cent of Ontarians say it’s the biggest issue facing the province, and only three per cent express high levels of concern about climate change or the environment.
Trade and the economy come in third-place: 12 per cent say the economy is the most important issue facing Ontario while 11 per cent say Ontario’s trade relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump is the most important issue facing the province. Eighteen per cent of those aged 55 and older see trade with the U.S. as the largest issue facing Ontario, compared to just five per cent of those between 18 and 34.
Ford and his government enjoy broad approval for their handling of some of the issues, although support has softened in recent months. Forty-seven per cent of those polled support Ford’s handling of relations with the federal government and 45 per cent approve of how the Progressive Conservatives have handled the tariff file and trade relations with the United States.
However, more people disapprove than approve of the government’s handling of roads and transportation (46 per cent versus 38 per cent) and Indigenous reconciliation (35 per cent versus 33 per cent) and a number of other issues. The most stark contrast comes on the housing front, where 68 per cent disapprove of the government’s handling of the file, compared to just 17 per cent who support it.
“Really, it’s affordability and housing that is most important to Ontarians right now — the top concern. And so if we look at the performance on those on those areas, there’s a lot of room for improvement,” said McLeod Macey.
Broadly speaking, Ontarians are in agreement on a variety of different policy ideas. For example, 79 per cent of poll respondents believe that existing infrastructure should be maintained before new projects are built and 71 per cent believe that there should be rent freezes in areas where rental prices are growing rapidly. The poll also found that 75 per cent believe that price increases in grocery stores should be disclosed to a provincial regulator and 78 per cent say there should be consumer protection rules that label products with information about shrinkflation. A majority — 51 per cent — agree that homeless people do not have the right to camp in public spaces.
The polling also found that despite so many people believing Ontario is heading in the wrong direction, Ford would still enjoy the support of 44 per cent of voters if an election were to happen tomorrow. The Ontario Liberals would place second with 32 per cent of the vote and the NDP would get 13 per cent of the vote.
The polling was done between Oct. 10 and 13 and Oct. 17 and 20, among an online survey of 1,052 Ontarians. Results were weighted according to age, gender, region, and education to ensure a representative sample of the Ontario population. While no margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample, for comparative purposes, a probability sample of 1,052 respondents would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
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