From cannolis to a collapsing NDP: Inside Poilievre's GTA battle as election day nears

VAUGHAN, ONT. — When she takes the stage, Anna Roberts does so to deliver a direct message to Conservatives.  “We have to stop Mark Carney and the Liberals from winning a fourth mandate,” she tells the crowd at a rally in Vaughan, a city of nearly 339,000 that makes up part of the must-win Greater Toronto Area. With only days left in the federal election, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is here for two reasons. He wants to hold what he can, which in this case would be Roberts’ seat in King—Vaughan that the Conservatives won by a little more than a 1,000 votes during the last election. He also wants make gains in the riding next door, Vaughan—Woodbridge, which the Liberals currently hold. Poilievre must do both if he hopes to win government on April 28, but not just here, across the region. It is an outcome other federal party leaders are now openly saying will not happen, after weeks of successive public opinion polls suggesting the Liberals are leading in the crucial battleground of Ontario. Before Poilievre takes the stage, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made his own plea to voters  to elect as many New Democrats as they can to stop Liberal Leader Mark Carney from forming a “ super majority,” saying voters were only turning to Carney to reject the Conservatives.  That’s what the NDP candidate in Vaughan—Woodbridge is dealing with, too. Ali Bahman estimates that one out of four doors he knocks on, he is informed by those inside that they plan to vote Liberal, even if it’s someone who likes what the NDP has to say.  “This is something that is very, very, very common,” he says. “Like 25 per cent of the doors that I knock on.” Diana Dugo could have been on the other side of one of those doors. Leaving one of the riding’s advanced polling stations, Dugo says she wants the Liberals to win because she wants to keep the Conservatives out. Her reason? “Poilievre is too much like Trump,” she said. “That’s why I’m voting Liberal.” While she was considering voting NDP, her decision came down to strategy. “They will not win and I don’t want the votes to be split.” While New Democrats have never come anywhere close to victory in Vaughan, not even cracking double digits, losing support to the Liberals could give Carney’s candidates an advantage over Poilievre’s Conservatives, should they not be able to pull in enough of their own support, particularly in tight races. It is a scenario that worries Tories. Despite concerns Conservatives are struggling with older demographics, rally-goers like Joseph Gravina has confidence the younger generation he belongs to will turn out. “Young people are going crazy for Pierre,” said Gravina, who is from Barrie, Ont. Back on the rally stage, Roberts calls on the crowd to help by volunteering and voting, emphasizing that every person is needed. “Please,” she says. While Roberts is thinking about votes, the Liberal challenger in her riding is focused on knocking on doors. Mubarak Ahmed is running what he calls a “baby campaign,” referring to how he was only nominated as a candidate several days after the federal election was called, meaning his race will be slightly shorter. He is also not naïve about the challenge ahead. This marks Roberts’ third race after she was unsuccessful in the 2019 federal election. Her campaign declined a request for an interview. Ahmed’s focus is on building “door-to-door alliances.” Speaking to one household also opens the door to word of mouth spreading, he says. “They’re calling their brother, they’re calling their sister, they’re calling their cousins.” While he may be playing catch up, Ahmed has an advantage of being able to speak upwards of six languages, including Arabic, Pashto and Punjabi, which he credits to his international experience working in telecom. His ability to connect with voters in their own language is a plus in a riding that is home to an ever-diversifying population, which is true for seats across Toronto’s suburbs. “You go to every second or third door, there is a different language,” Mubarak says. Win or lose the election, he has set a goal for himself of wanting to be able to have a conversation in Italian. “I’m meeting so many nonnas (grandmothers) and they are so kind,” he said. Italians make up the largest ethnic demographic in Vaughan, followed by those who are Chinese, Jewish, Russian and Indian. Earlier in the day, Poilievre and his wife, Anaida, visited an exhibit documenting the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel. Inside his rally, Poilievre gives a shoutout to Italians in the crowd and tells a story from when he spent his Sunday evenings dining with a friend whose grandfather immigrated from southern Italy and spoke no English. “The old classic Italian family,” he said to cheers. That evening, Mubarak’s campaign was set to host a meet-and-greet billed as “cannoli (and) conversations.” His team knows it is a sensitive time for the community, given the recent death of Pope Francis and how almost 40 per cent of the city’s population identifies as Roman Catholic. Still, the campaign carries on. Out on the doorstep, the diversity of the riding is unmistakable. As Mubarak’s volunteers walk along streets in the neighbourhood of Maple, at least two people who open the door say they cannot vote as they are still permanent residents. At another household, visitors are greeted with a Turkish greeting placed on the front door. One of the volunteers also switches from English when they encounter a woman with a list of largely municipal concerns she wants fixed. Anna Gerrard has called Vaughan home for the past 12 years and has been visited by both Mubarak’s and Roberts’ campaigns in the past two days. After a polite conversation with Mubarak’s volunteers, whom she tells that she considers herself a “Liberal at heart,” Gerrard acknowledges afterwards that she hasn’t fully made up her mind. She remains a fan of former prime minister Justin Trudeau and was pleased to see Singh work with the Liberals to pass policies. Earlier that day she also saw Poilievre release his platform and thought to herself, “Oh, OK sounds interesting.” “They’re offering the best that they can, just like Mr. Carney is offering the best that he can,” Gerrard said. “We’ll see how things go.” Correction: An earlier version of this article described Ali Bahman as the Conservative candidate in Vaughan—Woodbridge. He is the NDP candidate. National Post staylor@postmedia.com Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.